|
Stats & Population/Demographics
Economic Forecasts for 2007
The Ministry of Finance lowered its oil price forecast. The forecast for the current year has been reduced from $61/bbl for Urals to $55/bbl, for 2008 it is set at $53/bbl (down from the previous forecast of $56/bbl) and in 2009 and 2010 it is set at $52 and $50, respectively. As oil extraction growth is likely to remain below the headline GDP growth, the share of oil-related revenues in the budget will decline. As the oil price forecast is now below that which is set in the budget, budget revenues will be below projections (although the majority of this loss will be to the Stabilisation Fund). It is likely that MinFin will use these estimates for its three-year budget plan.
The Central Bank of Russia reiterated that rouble appreciation in 2007 will be significantly lower than 2006 and will decline to zero in a couple of years. It also expects that the CBR will stop accumulating international reserves by 2011. On the monetary side, Ulyukaev expects that M2 growth in 2007 will be half that of 2006 (when it reached 48.8%).
The Ministry of Economic Development and Trade presented its updated macroeconomic forecast for the medium term, lowering GDP growth from 6.2% to 6.05% on the back of the lower oil price for 2007 and also setting the CPI estimate in the range of 7.5-8.0% for the current year. At the same time, it has revised the maximum tariffs for gas and electricity for 2009-2010: gas prices are to increase by 25% in 2008 and by 27.7% in 2009-10, while the increases in electricity prices for the population are estimated at 14% in 2008, 15% in 2009 and 18% in 2010. The increase in electricity tariffs is explained by higher gas prices. This translates into a higher CPI reading: the MEDT forecasts that in the years 2008-10, it will be in the ranges 6.5-7%, 6.3-6.8%, 5.8- 6.5% respectively. This is a significant deterioration on the government's earlier plans to reduce inflation to about 4.5% by 2009.
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As of April 2006, the best-paid employees earned on average 25.3 times more than the worst paid. The corresponding figure in 2004 was 24.9). The widest gap was in retail and wholesale (32.7), finance (31.4) and services (28.2). The most egalitarian sectors were engineering, gas and water supply (11.5) and transport (13.8).
Russia’s foreign debt increased from $257.4 bln to $268.6 bln, or 4.4%, in the first nine months of 2006. According to the Russian Central Bank, the foreign debt of state management bodies and monetary-lending control agencies fell 33.5% to $54.7 bln in the period under review. At the same time, the banking sector’s debt rose 56.7% to $78.5 bln. The loan debt grew 54.8% to $53.4 bln.
(Source: World Bank)
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Stiles & Riabokobylko
Macroeconomic Indicators 1H06
|
|
2001
|
2002
|
2003
|
2004
|
2005
|
Jan. '06
|
Feb. '06
|
Mar. '06
|
April '06
|
May '06
|
|
Output Ind.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GDP % yoy
|
5.1
|
4.7
|
7.3
|
7.2
|
6.4
|
-
|
-
|
5.5
|
-
|
-
|
|
Ind. Production % yoy
|
4.9
|
3.7
|
7.0
|
8.3
|
4.0
|
4.4
|
1.0
|
4.1
|
4.8
|
10.6
|
|
Manufacturing % yoy
|
-
|
1.1
|
10.3
|
10.5
|
5.7
|
4.1
|
-0.1
|
5.7
|
5.6
|
15.1
|
|
Extraction of Min Res % yoy
|
-
|
6.8
|
8.7
|
6.8
|
1.3
|
0.9
|
1.1
|
1.8
|
3.8
|
3.6
|
|
Fixed Capital Inv. % yoy
|
8.7
|
2.6
|
12.5
|
10.9
|
10.5
|
4.2
|
2.3
|
10.8
|
10.8
|
14.6
|
|
Balance of Payments
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Trade Balance ($billion)
|
48.1
|
46.3
|
59.9
|
145.8
|
118.3
|
12.2
|
12.0
|
12.0
|
12.9
|
-
|
|
Share of NRG Res in exports (%)
|
51.2
|
52.4
|
54.2
|
54.7
|
61.1
|
-
|
-
|
67.6
|
-
|
-
|
|
Current A/C ($bill)
|
33.9
|
29.1
|
35.4
|
58.6
|
84.2
|
-
|
-
|
28.0
|
-
|
-
|
|
Exports ($bill)
|
101.9
|
107.3
|
135.9
|
183.2
|
243.6
|
20.9
|
22.1
|
24.4
|
24.3
|
-
|
|
Imports ($bill)
|
53.8
|
61.0
|
76.1
|
69.3
|
125.3
|
8.7
|
10.2
|
12.3
|
11.4
|
-
|
|
Gross FDI ($mill)
|
3980
|
4002
|
6781
|
9420
|
13072
|
-
|
-
|
3845
|
-
|
-
|
|
Average oil proce $/bbl
|
20.9
|
21.0
|
23.9
|
34.1
|
45.2
|
51.5
|
52.8
|
52.5
|
57.4
|
-
|
|
Financial Markets
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Av. weighted lending rate (%)
|
17.9
|
15.8
|
13.1
|
11.5
|
10.9
|
10.4
|
10.9
|
10.4
|
11.1
|
-
|
|
CBR re-financing rate (% end-o-p)
|
25
|
21
|
16
|
13
|
12
|
12
|
12
|
12
|
12
|
12
|
|
Income/Labor
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Real Disp Income (1999=100)
|
121.7
|
135.3
|
155.4
|
170.8
|
185.8
|
151.0
|
184.6
|
200.4
|
211.1
|
211.7
|
|
Average $ wage
|
112.4
|
138.6
|
179.4
|
237.2
|
301.6
|
320.6
|
329.1
|
357.1
|
360.6
|
371.8
|
|
Unemployment (% ILO definiition)
|
9.0
|
8.1
|
8.6
|
8.2
|
7.6
|
7.9
|
8.0
|
7.7
|
7.4
|
7.3
|
|
TRADE (US$ millions)
|
1995
|
2004
|
2005
|
|
Total exports (fob) ..
|
82,419
|
183,452
|
243,569
|
|
Crude oil ..
|
12,351
|
58,256
|
83,439
|
|
Natural gas ..
|
13,382
|
21,853
|
31,671
|
|
Manufactures ..
|
9,116
|
15,100
|
17,000
|
|
Total imports (cif) ..
|
64,972
|
100,193
|
130,303
|
|
Food
|
13,152
|
13,800
|
. |
|
Fuel and energy .. ..
|
. |
1,700
|
. |
|
Capital goods
|
15,704
|
31,100
|
. |
|
Export price index (2000=100)
|
82
|
140
|
182
|
|
Import price index (2000=100)
|
120
|
110
|
112
|
|
Terms of trade (2000=100)
|
68
|
127
|
162
|
(source: World Bank)
(source: World Bank)
The Stock Market
There are three Russian market indexes of note:
Russian Trading System (RTS)
MICEX (Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange)
RUXX, the Leading Russian Companies Index
(source: www.rts.ru)
The first six months of 2007 saw Russian companies raise $26 billion in public
offerings, compared with the $17 billion raised in all of 2006. More
than half of the companies that held local IPOs are trading below
their offer price as of july 2007.
Russia's Population / Demographics
|
|
Thou. persons
|
Percentage
of total
|
Females
per 1000 males
of given age
|
|
20011)
|
2004
|
2005
|
2001
|
2004
|
2005
|
2001
|
2004
|
2005
|
|
Total population
|
146304
|
144168
|
143474
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
1141
|
1151
|
1154
|
|
Including
by age of, years:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0-4
|
6367
|
6632
|
6867
|
4.4
|
4.6
|
4.8
|
950
|
951
|
950
|
|
5-9
|
7762
|
6733
|
6536
|
5.3
|
4.7
|
4.6
|
955
|
956
|
955
|
|
10-14
|
11789
|
9247
|
8469
|
8.1
|
6.4
|
5.9
|
961
|
957
|
957
|
|
15-19
|
12321
|
12579
|
12241
|
8.4
|
8.7
|
8.5
|
966
|
969
|
967
|
|
20-24
|
11106
|
11941
|
12267
|
7.6
|
8.3
|
8.6
|
983
|
978
|
978
|
|
25-29
|
10451
|
10796
|
10881
|
7.1
|
7.5
|
7.6
|
985
|
1000
|
1001
|
|
30-34
|
9620
|
10024
|
10211
|
6.6
|
7.0
|
7.1
|
997
|
1004
|
1007
|
|
35-39
|
11333
|
9664
|
9412
|
7.8
|
6.7
|
6.6
|
1025
|
1035
|
1034
|
|
40-44
|
12651
|
12166
|
11665
|
8.6
|
8.4
|
8.1
|
1055
|
1065
|
1068
|
|
45-49
|
11434
|
11876
|
11885
|
7.8
|
8.2
|
8.3
|
1104
|
1119
|
1122
|
|
50-54
|
9409
|
10416
|
10518
|
6.4
|
7.2
|
7.3
|
1157
|
1183
|
1191
|
|
55-59
|
4995
|
6435
|
7656
|
3.4
|
4.5
|
5.3
|
1287
|
1269
|
1278
|
|
60-64
|
8906
|
6368
|
5179
|
6.1
|
4.4
|
3.6
|
1421
|
1477
|
1482
|
|
65-69
|
5904
|
6999
|
7510
|
4.0
|
4.9
|
5.2
|
1591
|
1624
|
1650
|
|
70 and over
|
12256
|
12292
|
12177
|
8.4
|
8.5
|
8.5
|
2549
|
2474
|
2470
|
|
Out of total population:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
under working age
|
28387
|
25014
|
24095
|
19.4
|
17.3
|
16.8
|
958
|
956
|
955
|
|
working age2)
|
88040
|
89896
|
90218
|
60.2
|
62.4
|
62.9
|
982
|
978
|
968
|
|
over working age
|
29877
|
29258
|
29161
|
20.4
|
20.3
|
20.3
|
2175
|
2334
|
2459
|
1) Population size is adjusted according to the results of the All-Russia population census 2002.
2) Males - 16-59 years, females - 16-54 years.
Population Pyramids - Russia in 2000, 2025 & 2050
Key Indicators, 1996-2003, 2004 (est.), 2005 (forecast)
"GDP is Growing, the Ruble is Getting Stronger, and Export Surplus is Increasing" (Ministry of Economic Development and Trade figures for Jan-June 2004) RIA-Novosti (August 25, 2004)
Industrial Growth, Jan-Aug 2004
Main Macroeconomic Indicators (Central Bank of the Russian Federation)
2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1995-1998
Inflation Review (Central Bank of the Russian Federation, December 2003) -- Adobe Acrobat file
Official Currency Exchange Rates (Central Bank of the Russian Federation)
US Dollar: 2000-2004, bi-monthly (graph) 2000-2004, daily (table)
Nominal GDP used, 1995-2003
Industrial Production by Branches
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